It is a capital mistake to theorise before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts.

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Who said it
Arthur Conan Doyle
Source
The Adventures of Sherlock Holmes (1892), “A Scandal in Bohemia”
Topics
fiction quotes · literature · quotes from books · Sherlock Holmes

— The Adventures of Sherlock Holmes (1892), “A Scandal in Bohemia”

About this quote

हिन्दी में

आँकड़े हाथ में आने से पहले सिद्धांत गढ़ लेना सबसे बड़ी भूल है। मनुष्य अनजाने ही तथ्यों को सिद्धांत के अनुकूल मोड़ने लगता है, बजाय इसके कि सिद्धांत को तथ्यों के अनुकूल बनाए।

What it means

The load-bearing word is insensibly. Holmes is not describing a liar who decides to bury an inconvenient fact; he is describing a process you cannot feel happening, which is precisely why honesty and willpower are no defence against it. Capital carries its older weight here too — chief, fatal — the mistake from which the rest follow.

Notice also what is not being banned. Holmes builds theories constantly, often on very little; the prohibition is on sequence, not on hypotheses. A theory formed before the data has nothing to be accountable to, so it starts recruiting whatever arrives next. That makes this a claim about order of operations, which can be checked and enforced, rather than a general appeal for open-mindedness, which cannot.

What it teaches you

The detectable symptom of the twist is the small dismissal — the moment you catch yourself explaining why one particular detail does not count, or why that one reading was probably an error. Record the awkward item before you explain it, and decide in advance what result would make you drop the idea. In practice that means keeping the inconvenient data somewhere your theory cannot quietly edit it: a written note, a log, a message to someone who is not invested in your being right.

अर्थ और सीख

यहाँ असली चेतावनी ‘अनजाने’ शब्द में है — तथ्यों को मोड़ने का काम झूठ बोलकर नहीं, बिना पता चले होता है, इसलिए केवल ईमानदार होने से यह नहीं रुकता। होम्स सिद्धांत बनाने से मना नहीं कर रहे, क्रम बदलने से मना कर रहे हैं: पहले तथ्य, फिर सिद्धांत। सीख यह है कि जैसे ही आप किसी असुविधाजनक तथ्य को ‘यह तो अपवाद है’ कहकर टालने लगें, समझ लीजिए मोड़ना शुरू हो चुका है — उसे टालने से पहले कहीं लिख लीजिए।

Where it comes from

Holmes to Watson in the first of the short stories, and the closest thing the canon has to a method statement. Note the British spelling ‘theorise’, which is what Doyle wrote; American editions and quotation sites routinely change it.

The second sentence is the one people drop, and it is the useful half: the danger is not having a theory, it is quietly bending the evidence to keep it.